BOXTOROW National Game of the Week
2/2 Grambling (2-1, 2-0) vs. 4/5 Prairie View A&M (3-1, 3-0)
Last year’s annual State Fair Classic between Grambling and Prairie View A&M ultimately decided the SWAC’s Western Division.
GSU won the shootout 70-54.
This year’s game played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas may not ultimately decide the West, but could go a long way in doing so. The Southern Jaguars, who were not contenders in the West as they had been the previous two years, are currently undefeated in SWAC play and are scoring points like the Tigers and the Panthers did last year.
Southern plays PV on the road on November 12 and in New Orleans in the Bayou Classic on November 26.
While both Grambling and Prairie View are playing well, the Tigers are a much improved defensive team. The Tigers are second in the SWAC in scoring defense (21.0) and total defense (363.3). The Tigers stymied the Arizona offense earlier in the season, holding the Wildcats to just three points in the first half. Safety Guy Stallworth is leading the way with 27 tackles (26 solo), two tackles for loss and two pass breakups.
While the Panthers may not have the overall numbers in terms of defense that the Tigers have, the area they do excel in is putting pressure on the quarterback as they lead FCS in sacks (19), averaging almost five sacks per game. Defensive end DeVohn Reed leads the way with six.
While the Panthers are able to get pressure on the quarterback, they are susceptible to the pass. They give up 261 yards per game, although 395 yards came at the hands of Texas A&M.
The Panthers are going to have to figure out how to stop the high-powered passing offense of Grambling. The GSU offense went to work on PV last year in the form of last year’s BOXTOROW National Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Johnathan Williams who accounted for seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). The Tigers haven’t missed much of a beat without Williams as Mississippi transfer Devante Kincade leads the SWAC in total offense (298.0). He has completed 69 percent of this passes for 820 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
One of the perplexing things with respect to the Grambling offense is the running game or the lack thereof. Running back Martez Carter was a first team All-SWAC preseason selection after having a very productive second half of 2015. He rushed for 876 yards and averaged a league-leading 7.9 yards per carry last year. In three games this year, carter has only gained 121 yards and is averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
As for the PV offense, quarterback Trey Green hasn’t gotten off to a great start. After completing 59 percent of his passes last year and throwing for 21 touchdowns against just four interceptions, which was the top touchdown to interception ratio in FCS, Green has completed just 49 percent of this passes for 819 yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions. The running game has been solid behind Sta’fon McCray who’s rushed for 204 yards, averaging 8.9 yards per carry and two touchdowns.
An x-factor for PV could be in the return game as Anthony Wiltz averages 13.3 yards per punt return has returned one for as touchdown.
Grambling wins if… They continue to play solid defense and contain Green. While Green’s numbers are down so far, this is an important game on a big stage where in excess of 50,000 people saw this game in the Cotton Bowl last year and Green had a lot of success, throwing for 414 yards and four touchdowns. Kincade should have success against PV’s defense if GSU’s offensive line can protect him. He’s been sacked 11 times this season.
Prairie View wins if…Trey Green can get going as well as having a balanced attack offensively. GSU is giving up almost 152 yards rushing per game and McCray needs to have success in the running game. PV also needs to create turnovers and force Tiger backs to fumble. Grambling is last in the SWAC in turnovers (10).